By passing on Johan Santana this past off season, the Yankees sent the baseball world a message loud and clear, that they are going to try and win through a way they have been shying away from for a while now. That is to stick with the kids, and trust the farm system .
Personally, I thought it was a very questionable move to say the least, but I hope to G-D that it pays off. I still am very skeptical on Hughes and company. We see it happen so often that young phenom pitchers turn out to be busts. Johan is a proven dominant lefty ace. But lets not get into this argument. The topic at hand is the New York Yankees starting pitching TODAY.
With out getting into stats(because I gave my stat predictions already. http://samiamsports.blogspot.com/2008/01/sam-i-ams-yankee-stat-predictions.html)
I'm going to give you a basic overview on the Yankee rotation.
40 Chien-Ming Wang
46 Andy Pettitte
34 Phil Hughes
36 Ian Kennedy
35 Mike Mussina
(62 Joba Chamberlain )
This starting 5/6 has question marks all over it. Especially with the Innings cap situation
Wang and Pettitte are the only two certainties in this "rotation of question marks".Year after year we get more or less the same kind of production and we know what we could expect from them.
After that , your guess is as good as mine.
Hughes definitely has the moxie and the make up of a major leaguer, but what can we really expect from a guy that hasn't pitched a full season in the majors and is coming off an injury riddled rookie year?
It wouldn't be fair to get on Phil's case if he has an average season . We must give this kid at least a year or two to develop.
Then we have the same story with IPK, although in the few major league outings last year Kennedy shinned. We cant expect the world from this kid either.
Mike Mussina is an aging vet that hasn't figured out that his fastball decreased 7-8 MPH since his prime. For a guy that's supposed to smart, sure isn't showing it. Since moose got that 2 year extension (probably one of the dumbest moves in Cashman's tenure) he hasn't proved that he can adapt to where his stuff is NOW.
Finally , We have the Joba situation. I strongly disagree with the Yankees on putting him in the pen to start the season. Its just an excuse to have a stop gap until they figure out what they have. Reason being... they are mortified, and rightfully so. But its not an excuse to tamper with what could be " the best next pitcher in baseball ".
The up side is definitely there , but your fooling yourself if you want to tell me that these guys are going to be instant stars.
As a big Yankee fan, I'm wouldn't be surprised if this year is kind of like a rebuilding /win now kind of season (Meaning to say , the Yankee organization wont be pissed if they fall short yet again). If the pitching isn't up to par, The offense will for sure carry them anywhere near playoff contention.
Gun to my head...I say they make it with this staff(obviously barring major injuries). Just because Joba will be a starter( I hope).
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Here's the Mets side:
With the acquisition of Johan Santana the Mets rotation is #1 in NYit looks like this:Johan SantanaJohn MaineOliver PerezPedro MartinezMike Pelfrey(El Duque)I put Pedro 4th because I believe that both oliver and maine will have better records than him this year as well as more starts...Johan Santana needs no description, he is the best pitcher in baseball and his numbers can only go up going from the AL to the NL.I dont think I need to say anything further on him.Oliver Perez and John Maine's numbers both have gotten better since they came over to the mets they were both 15-10 last year in an up and down kind of year. Through the first 4 months of the year, both of their ERA's were around 3 and then ended off at 3.56 and 3.91. They both continue to improve and I am looking at more wins out of each of them this year. Oliver Perez is part of a small class of lefties that can throw 95 mph and higher.Seeing how Pedro pitched last season. You can be confident that he will put up good numbers this year as well. He probably will only get 23-27 starts this season I Just pray his arm doesnt fall off this year.Unlike alot of people I am extremely high on Mike Pelfrey.I believe he is brandon Webb in the making. He has a great sinking fastball that will make hitters pound the ball in the ground. Once he gains more confidence he will show how good he can be at this level.In his first 4 starts last september he went 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA including a gem that knocked the braves out of the playoffs. One number that jumps off the page is that his ERA on a 0-0 count is 45.00 but all other counts is just a 0.00. I dont know if thats a typo, but thats amazing. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7807/situational;_ylt=AiaHPttzwp6.kct8JwmBTVmFCLcFSo it seems to me that he just has to work on his first pitch selection and he'll be fine...Also el Duque, I have no clue what to expect from him but the mets were 16-8 in his 24 starts last season. So while he is injury prone, I feel comfortable if hes the 6th starter that can come in when pedro or any other pitcher needs a rest...I think the mets win this hands down....individually:Mets win #1Mets win #2- Because Andy was 15-9 140k and 4.05 era and either maine or perz had better ERA and at least 35-40 more k's, and pettitte has this whole steroid scandal and maine and perez are entering their prime and andy is turning 36 in june. Andy's whip is 1.43 maine's whip 1.27Mets win #3Mets win #4#5, you can argue Kennedy vs Pelfrey , but like I said Pelfrey showed you at the end of last year he can pitch and Kennedy in my opinion should have been traded this offseason because his value will never be that high again...
OUTCOME
-------------
First Base -Mets
Second Base- Yankees
Short Stop- Reluctantly Yankees but very skeptical ( Jeter will probably have the better year but Reyes has the potential to be GREAT. )
Third Base- Yankees without question
Catcher- Yankees (Yanks win this in a laugher)
Center Field- Mets (In a landslide)
Right Field-Yankees (Church is unproven and Abreu is on his walk year)
Left Field-Yankees (Alou cant stay on the field)
Starting Pitching-Mets (Half the Yankee rotation is unproven and the other half is an injury waiting to happen.)
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Sunday, March 16, 2008
YANKEES VS METS: LF
In LF for the Mets is Moises Alou.(Or at least when he's healthy.)
In each of the past 2 years Alou has failed to play in 100 games (in each) .
however his numbers are still very good as he has put up batting AVG's of 341 last yr and 301 the year before..
last years numbers "prorated"for a full season were 25 hr and 95 RBI...
His career batting avg is 303.Which I believe he is the only NY OF to have a career BA of Over 300.
Now back to reality.Reality is that he will be out for at least April and that he will only play in 100-110 games this year, so even if he puts up stats like he did last year along with the bench I think that's enough to take this position.
Likewise for all the Mets OF positions the Mets have a good bench.With the likes of Endy Chavez. Angel Pagan whose batting near .500 in ST.(i know its only ST) and Damion Easley as the emergency backup...lets not forget about the teenage hitting machine.Fernando Martinez..He has looked very good and hits everything with power.This kid looks like he'll be in the bigs sooner then later and when I say sooner I mean he's one serious injury to Alou away from being on the roster and hes only 19....
One note on Matsui...his doubles went down from 45 in 05' to 28 in 07' (I skipped 06 because he was injured) that's a big WOW to me for a guy hitting at that short fence in RF..his homers stayed the same at from 23 in 05' to 25 in 07'
this guys is getting older and his age is showing... just look at his face lol..
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NY YANKEES LEFT FIELD
In Left field for the Yankees is Johnny Damon/Hideky Matsui..
This tandem of players Will be very productive. That is (if) they are healthy.
Matsui is coming off of minor knee surgery and no major setbacks are being foreseen in the future. Matsui's production as Abie Stated has been slipping a bit. But A steady dose of the DH should help him tremendously.
The other half of this duo is the man who will be starting in left on opening day.
That is none other than Johnny Damon.
As a Left fielder Damon's splits look something like this:
AB 133
R 30
H47
2B 9
3B 1
HR 4
RBI 25
BB 13
HBP 1
SO 11
SB 9
CS 1
AVG .353
OBP .412
SLG .526
OPS .938
One word sums those numbers up....."Impressive"
The Damon/Matsui combo should keep both healthy and well rested.
If any of the two happens to go down with injuries the Yanks have guys like Jason Lane and Shelley Duncan waiting in the wings and are more than capable.
If deemed necessary Joe Girardi might dig deep in the Yankee talent well and bring up a guy from the minors like Jose Tabata (Highly unlikely) or pending on growth , Ajax or Gardner. Its safe to say these guys wont get a taste of the bigs till at least September, but its still a possibility and I am dying to see what these guys are all about.
With all that being said, the combo of Matsui/Damon Will get more at bats than Alou will get. Right out of gate Alou will be missing some time.
If Both slots are healthy for the entirety of the season I would say that Alou edges out a victory, but lets be honest there is more of a chance of it snowing in July than Alou being Healthy for an entire season.
OUTCOME
-------------
First Base -Mets
Second Base- Yankees
Short Stop- Reluctantly Yankees but very skeptical ( Jeter will probably have the better year but Reyes has the potential to be GREAT. )
Third Base- Yankees without question
Catcher- Yankees (Yanks win this in a laugher)
Center Field- Mets (In a landslide)
Right Field-Yankees (Church is unproven and Abreu is on his walk year)
Left Field-Yankees (Alou cant stay on the field)
In each of the past 2 years Alou has failed to play in 100 games (in each) .
however his numbers are still very good as he has put up batting AVG's of 341 last yr and 301 the year before..
last years numbers "prorated"for a full season were 25 hr and 95 RBI...
His career batting avg is 303.Which I believe he is the only NY OF to have a career BA of Over 300.
Now back to reality.Reality is that he will be out for at least April and that he will only play in 100-110 games this year, so even if he puts up stats like he did last year along with the bench I think that's enough to take this position.
Likewise for all the Mets OF positions the Mets have a good bench.With the likes of Endy Chavez. Angel Pagan whose batting near .500 in ST.(i know its only ST) and Damion Easley as the emergency backup...lets not forget about the teenage hitting machine.Fernando Martinez..He has looked very good and hits everything with power.This kid looks like he'll be in the bigs sooner then later and when I say sooner I mean he's one serious injury to Alou away from being on the roster and hes only 19....
One note on Matsui...his doubles went down from 45 in 05' to 28 in 07' (I skipped 06 because he was injured) that's a big WOW to me for a guy hitting at that short fence in RF..his homers stayed the same at from 23 in 05' to 25 in 07'
this guys is getting older and his age is showing... just look at his face lol..
----------------------------------------------------------------
NY YANKEES LEFT FIELD
In Left field for the Yankees is Johnny Damon/Hideky Matsui..
This tandem of players Will be very productive. That is (if) they are healthy.
Matsui is coming off of minor knee surgery and no major setbacks are being foreseen in the future. Matsui's production as Abie Stated has been slipping a bit. But A steady dose of the DH should help him tremendously.
The other half of this duo is the man who will be starting in left on opening day.
That is none other than Johnny Damon.
As a Left fielder Damon's splits look something like this:
AB 133
R 30
H47
2B 9
3B 1
HR 4
RBI 25
BB 13
HBP 1
SO 11
SB 9
CS 1
AVG .353
OBP .412
SLG .526
OPS .938
One word sums those numbers up....."Impressive"
The Damon/Matsui combo should keep both healthy and well rested.
If any of the two happens to go down with injuries the Yanks have guys like Jason Lane and Shelley Duncan waiting in the wings and are more than capable.
If deemed necessary Joe Girardi might dig deep in the Yankee talent well and bring up a guy from the minors like Jose Tabata (Highly unlikely) or pending on growth , Ajax or Gardner. Its safe to say these guys wont get a taste of the bigs till at least September, but its still a possibility and I am dying to see what these guys are all about.
With all that being said, the combo of Matsui/Damon Will get more at bats than Alou will get. Right out of gate Alou will be missing some time.
If Both slots are healthy for the entirety of the season I would say that Alou edges out a victory, but lets be honest there is more of a chance of it snowing in July than Alou being Healthy for an entire season.
OUTCOME
-------------
First Base -Mets
Second Base- Yankees
Short Stop- Reluctantly Yankees but very skeptical ( Jeter will probably have the better year but Reyes has the potential to be GREAT. )
Third Base- Yankees without question
Catcher- Yankees (Yanks win this in a laugher)
Center Field- Mets (In a landslide)
Right Field-Yankees (Church is unproven and Abreu is on his walk year)
Left Field-Yankees (Alou cant stay on the field)
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