Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Loss of A Baseball Prophet

For all of you who do not know. There is a man who prides himself on being " The Baseball Prophet".
He claims that anything baseball that is uttered from his lips is "straight from G-D's mouth".
The Person I am referring to is an avid reader of this blog and contributes sparingly. You can see his picture in the right hand side with the likes of A-Rod (his former hero) and Cano. As well as Sterling and Sheppard.
His name is Avi Dwek.

The truth is, He "WAS" a heck of a talent.
Although I never wanted to admit it. He always "WAS" correct.
Whether he was predicting which prospect out of high was the real deal or which prospect would be a bust, he always was dead on.

If I were a baseball owner I would hand over the General Manager job of my franchise to him in a heartbeat.
He simply "knew" how to evaluate talent as good if not better than Theo himself .
I know for a fact he would field a championship caliber team with a Billy Bean like budget .
I don't know anybody who is a better at Fantasy Baseball than him.

There comes a point in every man's career where you start to see a drop in his productivity.
Its only natural to slip in performance as you get up there in age.
Just look at the ladder stages of Bernie Williams tenure in pinstripes for example.
He was a shell of his former self and nobody gripped about it simply because it happens to just about everybody
(with the exception of Barry Bonds but we know the truth behind that story )

The drastic fall of Avi however came upon us in the blink of an eye.
Some say it was his Devotion to his job (anybody need a car?),
some say the key to his downfall was his obsession with fantasy baseball. However you slice it, the facts are inevitable. Avi Dwek no longer is "The Baseball Prophet".

Here are a few telltale signs of my reason why.

#1, A few years ago our former "Prophet" lost a monetary bet with another one of our readers Max N.
The wager was that Bobby Abreau will not reach the 100 RBI Plato after his first half of the season slump.
Avi made it a point to publicize this wager to prove his point.
As we all know, El Come Duce reached the century mark on the Yankees final series of the year to cap his blistering second half.

A few minor false predictions were made that I don't feel is important to mention. I skip all the way to this past season and give a few more examples.

#2, Before the season, along with everybody else that knows baseball , Avi was screaming that Yankees should somehow rid themselves (one way or another) of the services of Mike Mussina.
He even was willing to bite the bullet and cut him.
By no stretch of the imagination could anybody not entertain that notion. Especially after his atrocious 2007 campaign.
As it turns out. The Moose turned in one of his best years of his career and established himself as the Yankee stopper and ace. In a year when they least counted on him and needed him most.
Mussina ended up throwing over 200 innings to an E.R.A in the mid 3's and won the elusive 20 games. Something he failed to do through out his entire illustrious career.

Anybody else gets a pass on this one.
But, if your calling yourself "The Baseball Prophet" , you must take the hit.

#3, The final example I will be giving is,
This past season Avi Predicted at the half way point that
"Grady Sizemore WILL NOT hit 30 HRS this season".
Once again, he was wrong. He ended up with 33.

In no way shape or form am I saying Avi no longer knows his stuff. I still would let him be my GM of my franchise.
But I think its time to announce that He no longer is
"The baseball Prophet".

Its a shame we lost such a talent in Avi. It was a once in a lifetime gift which we may never see again and I am happy to have been a part of something special.

3 comments:

abie said...

HAHAHAHAHHA

SAM I AM said...

Due to the fact Avi Can not log in on his blackberry and comment. He has requested I post it for him:



Wow i'm flattered. Nice to get some recognition for “being on it” over the years.

On Mussina: offense(run scoring) was way down across MLB. When was the last time a hitter led the AL in homers with 37???

If you look at the amount of hitters who hit 40HRs then 30HRs, hitters who drove in 100, scored 100 batted .300 etc compared to the last 5 years, you'll see there's a substantial drop off. Likewise, the league ERAs where down as well. What this all means to say is that it was substantially easier to post a mid 3s ERA as mussina did than in previous years. I didn't watch many of his starts but the when I did his fastball sat in the upper 80's rarely hitting the 90's. When was the last time a finesse/control pitcher was that effective in the AL east?? Not to say mussina doesn't deserve any credit for the year he had, he was nearly perfect with his pitch placement almost all year and I couldn't have imagined him having the kind of year he did. I don't think he has any shot of replicating it or even getting close again. I don't want to see the yanks bring him back for say 10-12 mil.

On Sizemore the prediction was made at the all-star break when sizemore had about 23 homers and Max N was saying he's gonna hit 40. My prediction of " he won't hit 30" was an aggressive one and made more to state the fact that I was certain he'd slow down drastically in the second half. I know a 40 homer hitter when I see one and Sizemore just isn't. It was painful sitting in yankee stadium watching him one foul ball single after another. Was a disgrace that guys like he and dan uggla were even in it but that's a different discussion.

I have to admit that my passion for the yankees and baseball has been somewhat effected by the awful moves the Butcher of the Bronx (AKA Brain brain less Cashman) has made - and the fact I have no control over them. I feel like I'm tied down to a chair and gagged while the love of my life gets battered by evil men. They are and have been SO inept it's hard to fathom. Make sure you get carl pavano locked up asap Brian, before he hits the free agent market. A guy who I told cashman on march 15th 2005 during a game against the marlins at legends field that I strongly disagreed with. I said firstly because his strikeout rate of 130Ks in over 200 innings (in '04) indicated there was reason to believe he wouldn't be able to maintain his'04 level of effectiveness - a 3.00 ERA and 18 wins. Secondly, because of his long history of injury problems. His response was "well let's wait and see how it plays out". We'll it's played out Brian, and so have so many other signings,non-signings, trades and non-trades over the last 5-7 years. and we see where the yankees stand as a result with TWICE as much resources (money) as the second highest payroll team in baseball. Although you would have been much better off trading a combo of phil hughes, ian kennedy, mediocre melky, austin jackson and alan horne for both johan santana and miguel cabrera (to play 1B). Sign Texeiria, Sabathia, K-rod and pettitte. Let Giambi, mussina, abreu and PAVANO all go, and don't trade cano for russell martin and matt kemp.AND PLS NO MANNY. It'll take at least a 5 year deal to get him and he has 3 good years at best left in him. Wouldn't mind seeing adam dunn in pinstripes either. Drives in 100 and scores 100 almost every year ans is a good bet to keep doing it over the next 5 years or so. And please stop raping Joba Chaberlaim's arm. Leave him in the rotation and go J.O to Carl Pavano



Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry







Avi Dwek
Corporate Sales
Sovereign Mercedes-Benz Fleet
1800 Shore Parkway, Brooklyn , NY 11214
Phone:1-(888) MB-EXECUTIVE (623-9328) Ext.82
Fax: (718) 252-3595
www.BenzNow.com

Anonymous said...

dispenses utilize a wonderful website decent Gives many thanks for the hard work to help out people